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Wednesday, March 10, 2010

Technical Indicators In Forex Trading - Understanding Their Limitations

Forex traders often look at indicators such as Bollinger Bands, Pivot Points, MACD, Moving Averages and the such to help them determine where to enter or exit trades. Using technical indicators is fine, however many traders overemphasize their importance or just plain misunderstand them.

Many forex traders think that they can simply download an indicator and then mechanically apply it into their trading and do so profitably. This is just a plain illusion. Successful traders realize that there is a lot more to using indicators than just asking them to generate buy/sell signals or pin-point exact entry points. Technical indicators for them represent just one part of their trading strategy.

Lines of trends, support and resistance

The trendline. A trendline is a main initial element for the price chart analysis. While the market moves in any direction not along a straight line but along a zigzag, the mutual placement of upper and bottom points of those zigzags permits to plot a line connecting the significant highs (peaks) or the significant lows (troughs) of an appropriate zigzag using technical tools of the computer program.

Lines of support and resistance. The upper and the bottom borders of trade channels are called accordingly support and resistance lines. The peaks represent the price levels at which the selling pressure exceeds the buying pressure. They are known as resistance levels. The troughs, on the other hand, represent the levels at which the selling pressure succumbs to the buying pressure. They are called support levels. In an uptrend, the consecutive support and resistance levels must exceed each other respectively. The reverse is true in a downtrend. Although minor exceptions are acceptable, these failures should be considered as warning signals for trend changing.

The significance of trends is a function of time and volume. The longer the prices bounce off the support and resistance levels, the more significant the trend becomes. Trading volume is also very important, especially at the critical support and resistance levels. When the currency bounces off these levels under heavy volume, the significance of the trend increases.

The importance of support and resistance levels goes beyond their original functions. If these levels are convincingly penetrated, they tend to turn into just the opposite. A firm support level, once it is penetrated on heavy volume, will likely turn into a strong resistance level. Conversely, a strong resistance turns into a firm support after being penetrated. In general, to evaluate the reliability (that is the possibility of a break) of the trade channel borders taking a decision to close or to save an existing position one should govern himself with following rules:

1. A channel is the more reliable the longer it exists. Hence, the solidity of very old channels (e.g. existing more than 1 year) decreased sharply.
2. A channel is the more reliable the more is his width.
3. The resistance may be broken if it is bounced on the background of a growing volume.
4. A steep channel is less reliable in compare to a gentle one.
5. The support may be broken independent on the volume.

Simple Successful FOREX Technical Analysis Basics

What are the most simple things you studied or knew in technical analysis that you can use in FOREX trading?, of course most will answer this without even thinking about it, trend lines, resistance and support points and moving averages. The more professional traders will think more about it and would answer Yes, trend lines, resistance and support points and moving averages but who can use them alone successfully in trading FOREX?". Here it is my turn to answer, trend lines, resistance and support points and moving averages are the best simplest ways to achieve success trading FOREX and keep in the positive area always. Just to make it simple we need first to state the definition of these tools and later to know how to use and apply them to our chart in order to succeed and build a real FOREX fortune. 1. Trend Line : Trend line is the line that we can draw between two or more price tops or bottoms on a chart whatever was the type of the chart linear, bars or candlesticks", this line itself which could be an uptrend line which is being drawn between bottoms in a bullish market and it becomes a good support if the price goes south again or a downtrend line which is being drawn between price tops on the chart when market is down and it considered as a resistance when the price turns to up direction. Note: The line which touches more tops or bottoms is more stronger and the signal produced by it is more reliable. 2. Trend Channel : A trend channel is the space between two lines, the trend line and a parallel line to it which is always drawn on the opposite side of the trend line so it is drawn between tops in an up trend direction or through bottoms in a bearish price movement. The trend channel requires some conditions to give an accurate signal, the most important are: to be a wide channel, more wider more reliable and to last more longer. 3. Moving Average : Moving average is a mathematical average of set of prices we can say that a simple moving average (SMA) with value of 5 and applied to close is the sum of close prices for 5 moving bars on the chart divided to 5 (eg. the average of Friday is the sum of the previous 5 days week" on a daily chart divided to 5, while Thursday's average is the sum of the 5 days before divided to 5 and so, the moving average is the line which passes through these averages points", the most important condition for its reliability is its value, more greater value more reliable moving average. Note: I suggest using more than one moving average, 2 or 3 are acceptable. 4. Support And Resistance Points : Support points are the price points were tested more than two times when price was going south and it could not pass it, support points are completely the opposite. These points are being used to measure the probability of price turning at mean points, these points can be decided by using pivot points, fibonacci rates....etc." Note : The more times price touches a point and turn its direction the more stronger it is. How can we apply this to chart and get money, I'll summarize this in the following chart image, it explains itself, it's a chart for GBP/JPY, signal return was 1000+ pips in 2 days: Three moving averages were going south, trend line was broken price in green circle" a good support point 23.6% fibonacci was nearly broken", strong signal, yes? For the chart please visit MoneyTec The best resource for FOREX trading is MoneyTec, - Active Traders Community Forum, Chat. MoneyTec is an online trading community that promotes mature, intelligent & respectful discussion in a positive & safe environment for everyone.

Forex Charts - Make Bigger Profits by Following These Key Points

Forex charts are a great, time efficient and proven way to make bigger profits but most traders don't use them correctly and here we will give you some key points to help you make bigger profits...

Let's look at some key points for more profitable technical analysis with forex charts.

If you look at any forex chart you will see big trends that can last for many months and trend following these can be very profitable and if you want to make money out of them you must understand this key fact:

Most big trends start and continue from breakouts to new highs and lows on the chart and you must go with these breaks - most traders don't. They want to wait for the pullback and of course it never comes and they are left behind. While it appears like you have missed the first part of the move, the odds of continuation are high so go with them.

Always be patient when using forex charts. You don't get rewarded for your efforts or how many times you trade but being right with your trading signal. I know traders who trade just a few times a month yet make triple digit gains - so wait for the right opportunities.

When you have a trend you want to hit always check price momentum is on your side and make sure that you use momentum indicators that show price acceleration in the direction you wish to trade. Two great ones, you can learn, in about 30 minutes are - the stochastic and RSI. These two combined will increase your odds of success by getting the odds more on your side.

Never believe anyone who tells you there is a mathematical formula for market movement - there isn't. If of course there was, we would all know the price in advance and there would be no market. So forget trying to predict and only trade the reality of price.

Its probabilities that you need to understand and like a successful poker player, you won't win every hand - but if you keep trading the odds, you will win long term. When using forex charts, the simpler your forex trading method the better, as simple systems tend to be very robust and have fewer elements to break, than complicated ones.

I have used a simple breakout method which uses trend lines, RSI and the stochastic and made money with it for over 20 years sure, it's simple but it works. Forex charts give you the reality of price before your eyes and you can spot areas of over valuation and under valuation. Humans create trends and they also (due to their emotions) push trends to far up or down in either direction.

You can of course ride trends - but you will also see big price spikes and history tells you they don't last long and taking trades contrary to the majority can be very profitable. Charting is an art not a science and you need to practice your art. The successful captain of a ship uses charts to navigate safely, but he also knows that use them wrongly and he will drown and it's a very similar situation in forex.

The Good News

You can learn forex charting in around 2 weeks and soon be piling up big profits in around 30 minutes a day spotting and hitting high odds trades and enjoying great profits. The good news is forex trading and using technical analysis is a learned skill and one you can master with a little practice.