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Tuesday, December 1, 2009

What's the Best Forex Strategy?

Many forex traders find themselves asking the age old question what's the best forex strategy? To know the answer to that question, one must look at the history of trading. Not just forex trading, but trading, in general.

The moment that the first bell rang on the stock market floor, traders were coming up with strategies to beat the market. Obviously they didn't have the technology that most of us have at our disposal. They didn't have the thousand dollar charting platforms that so many traders are overpaying for, just for the privilege of using them, nowadays. So how do you think the successful traders of the past made their money?

Well, one way was through fundamental analysis. They were able to comprehend a company's financial statements such as balance sheets, income statements, statement of cash flows, etc. to know a bargain when they saw one. But these kind of people would be categorized as investors, not traders. Traders generally believed in technical analysis over fundamental analysis.

So how did traders of that generation made their money? Simple. They understood the concept of price action. Plenty of floor traders became rich just by paying attention to how the other floor traders were trading the respective stock.

How come a concept as simple as price action has been pushed back in favor of all the technological bells and whistles that most people use in their day to day trading?

People, today somehow feel that the best forex strategy has to be in these maze of indicators,colors, noises,and whatever else is en vogue nowadays. Its really quite sad that it has gotten to this point.

Traders used to pride themselves on how they were able to truly understand the market, but in the present time we live in, they are more worried about understanding what their indicators are telling them.

If you want to learn forex, then its a good idea to learn from our ancestors. The less is more approach has and will always result in more success. To find out more about price action and to get a forex trading education, make sure to visit Trading In The Buff.

Forex Scalping Strategy

Forex scalping is the art of using high leverage and a large number of short term trades to steadily increase an account. Usually, only 1 to 5 pips are targeted for each trade. This type of trading appeals greatly to day traders and those looking to minimize the risk involved in trading currencies. Next to money management, "risk control" is the single most important trait to a surviving (and thriving) currency trader. The small amount of time that is spent in the market limits much of the risk in exposure in comparison to a longer term system. Also, the freedom involved in a speedy Forex scalping system in such a liquid market is a "magnet" that drives many traders from other markets to try their hand in currency. A disciplined and steady scalper could seamlessly double or triple an account, and spend only a fraction of the time in the market as a common day trader.

Forex Scalping - The Problem

Though Forex scalping may seem like a preverbal "holy grail" at first glance, there are still many unseen hurdles that surround the controversial method of trading. If you do wish to add scalping to your trading toolbox, it is extremely important to pick a broker who can support a scalpers's system. You will quickly find that many brokers do not allow scalp trading, as the method of quickly entering and exiting trades may actually cause the broker to lose money at the dealing desk. Forex scalping also does not give the broker a means to trade against their clients which is a way of money making for them. Out of the hundreds of online Forex brokers, only a handful support scalping. It is a very thin line between scalping and short term trading. Generally if you hold trades for a minute or less, you may have problems with brokers. They could warn you and then if you continue shut down your account. However, if you trade in minutes or more, most likely you will not have problems with dealing desk brokers. Non dealing desk (ECN) brokers allow scalping where you can hold a position for seconds however the minimum to open an account is higher ($2,000 and above).

Forex Scalping Strategy

Effective Forex scalping strategies take advantage of extremely slight price fluctuations (sometimes only 1-3 pips) many times in order to steadily build an account. Because of the smaller number of pips gained per trade, larger than normal leverages play a key role in a successful Forex scalping strategy. By leveraging much more than a standard day trader in a liquid environment, a very skilled scalp trader is able to make just as much money as the day trader in a shorter period of time. However, this is an obvious double-edged sword. The market can just as easily move against you on a high leverage, which could produce substantial blows to your account.

Also, it is important to take into consideration the physical and mental speed of a trader who will only stay in the market for seconds to minutes. Executing a scalping strategy by hand can be extremely difficult considering the quick amount of time you must be in and out of the market for your strategy to be affective. Many successful Forex scalping strategies are built to be automated; the rules to the system are coded into a trading platform to automatically perform scalp trades around the clock. Though it is completely possible to trade a Forex scalping strategy manually, the majority of today's traders would agree that automating the process based on a set of rules would be the best way to ensure speed and reliability. When choosing a platform to automate your scalp strategy, it is extremely important to stick with those platforms that allow the execution of your system on every tick (such as MetaTrader 4). This ensures that your entrances and exits will be on a per-tick basis, and will give you a much higher probable rate of success than those platforms who will execute your code more periodically.

To understand the full challenge of scalping as a trading style, consider this: hard work and small gains accumulated over a decent period of time could easily be wiped out with one large loss. Finding a balance between profit levels and size of acceptable losses presents the most difficult challenge to scalpers' strategy.

Forex scalping can be a good method of growing a managed Forex account quickly, but should not be looked at as the "holy grail" of trading. Most brokers do not support scalping, and a consistently profitable Forex scalping strategy can be very difficult to engineer. However, if much time and effort is spent in system optimization and setting up a good relationship with a scalp supporting broker, the benefits could be well worth the time spent.

Forex Trading Strategy - A Simple Timeless Method For Huge Gains

The Forex trading strategy enclosed can be learned in a few weeks and can make you huge profits in around 30 minutes a day. It's easy to understand and have confidence in so let's take a look at it.

The methodology we are going to look at here is long term trend following with breakouts.

The one constant in Forex markets is they will trend for long periods of time in a sustained direction and as these trends reflect the underlying health of the economy, they will last for weeks months or years. If you can lock into these trends and hold them, with leverage on your side, you can make a lot of money but how do you get in on these trends and ride them?

The best way to get in on any trend is to buy a break of support or resistance, to a new chart high or low. You generally, want a level that has been tested at least twice and the more times the better. What you are looking for is a level which the traders consider important.

If the break is a good one the following will occur:

As soon as the level is penetrated, stops behind the level are hit and push the price further in favour of the breakout, technical buying kicks in and pushes the price further from the breakout point and then as the new trend develops retail buyers want to get on board pushing the trend even further.

It sounds simple and logical and it is but most traders have a problem with taking breakouts and it's rooted in their psychology. When the break occurs they think, I have missed the start of the move, so better wait for a pullback to get in but the really big breakouts don't come back, the trend develops and the trader who waited misses the move.

The trader who simply bought the beak, missed the first bit of the move but he has the odds on his side of a continuation of the trend and stands to make money.

Most traders want to predict and buy tops and bottoms and be perfect but that's impossible, if they focused purely on making money, they would see the logic of breakouts which is simply trade the reality of price change and forget prediction.

When trading breakouts, you need to be patient and wait for the best trading signals. You need to pick levels which have been tested several times and are considered important by traders.

Breakout trading can be done easily, by anyone and doesn't take long to learn. You can put together a simple, breakout strategy together in a week or so and then start enjoying currency trading success.

I know traders who trade just a few times a month, spend 30 minutes a day, on their Forex trading strategy and make triple digit annual gains. Discover breakout trading and you will have a simple, easy to understand and timeless way to make big profits.


How to approach news breakout: this occurs upon the release of major economic announcements and can sometimes trigger moves of over 70 pips within few minutes.

When a major fundamental announcement is to be released, few minutes to this time we see the market moving in a very choppy sideways or counter trend. During this time, breakout traders who straddle the news position themselves well ahead of the said news event to take advantage of the initial price spike. Note that not all news event support this strategy. Using this strategy, you ay only need to be in the market for about 5minutes and you are out with profit or a little loss.

You use this strategy by first of all knowing the time of the news release using the economic calendars then find out if the news event supports this strategy. Having done the above, you then go to your platform 5 or 3 minutes before the news event and set up your orders.

The news event that supports this strategy are interest rate statements from US EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/JPY. EUROPE- EUR/USD, EUR/GBP, EUR/JPY. And EUR/USD. UNITED KINGDOM-GBP/USD, EUR/GBP, GBP/JPY, NEWZEALAND AND CANADA. Other news events that supports this strategy are non-farm payroll from US , unemployment rate and employment change from Canada and Australia, German Zew economic sentiment, BOE MPC meeting minutes e.t.c.. the minimum each of this news events can generate is 30pips within 10 minutes so do not be greedy with profits. If you take only 20pips per event on a standard account, with just 10 events per week that will give you $2000 per week. Also try factoring in risk.

Technical breakout; this kind of breakout occurs without any news event in sight. It can happen during the opening hours or close of the market. Before the opening of certain currency pairs and market sessions, the market is usually in a very choppy mood and quiet too. During this time the big moves are being planned and you should learn to move along with them. Quite often the market would have determined the direction it wants to move before it becomes quiet attempting to determine where to breakout.

Send a blank mail to to get a free report on a trading system that generates an average of 500pips monthly plus how $5100 was turned to $40,000 without lifting a finger.

Successful Forex Rading System

Forex trading system is the subsystem of the forex trading plan which governs when and at which price you open and close your trades. A trading system works on the signals given by technical analysis and/or fundamental analysis. The signals are taken to see if the trader should buy or sell a specific currency pair or must close the open position(s). Any currency trading system prevents information overload by filtering out the universe of technical and/or fundamental signals in such a way that only the most reliable (successful in the past) signals or signal combinations are acted upon.

There are two kinds of trading systems - the discretionary and the mechanical. Discretionary trading systems expect the trader to use his or her own judgement to ascertain the importance of each of the technical or fundamental signals (whose number is potentially infinite) that he or she gets. Mechanical trading systems operate on a fixed number of technical or fundamental signals without the participation of the trader. Discretionary trading systems require the perpetual application of creativity (flexibility of approach) from the trader in the understanding of the changing market conditions. Mechanical trading systems require the creativity from the trader only in the forex system development phase.

Discretionary forex trading systems are best employed by professional forex traders with a lot of experience (internalized practical market knowledge) against which they can determine the validity of any signal that they receive. These traders usually remember a large number of various signal patterns from the past (just like the master chessmen) that they can compare to the current market conditions, to make their analysis more objective. In essence, they use themselves (i.e. their brain) as their trading system - often very successfully - because human mind has the best pattern recognition power on the planet.

Starting currency traders are advised to begin by following professionally created mechanical forex trading systems. Most of these systems are sold-out in the form of the forex signals that are usually developed by experienced traders who have found a way to systemize their knowledge of the markets into a working strategy. At the same time, the beginning traders can work on building their own knowledge base of the forex market through the quality forex books, educational courses, bank reports and newswires on this subject -so that they can too, with time, create mechanical trading systems from their own insights and intuitions (using the forex charting packages which allow to do this).

Beginning without a proven mechanical forex trading system (that has positive mathematical expectation) drastically dilutes the chances of maintaining the capital. This is because any intuition or a hunch that the traders experience as a result of some newly gained knowledge of the forex market is likely to be overridden by one of the two emotional derivatives of their life-long programming towards the money - the greed and the fear. In other words, without exact adherence to an existing mechanical trading system the beginning trader will eventually succumb to his or her emotions. As a matter of fact, the only way the traders can acquire discipline in the early phases of their trading careers is by tight following the signals generated by a proven mechanical forex trading system.

Note: Neural Network Packages (e.g. NeuroShell) emulate the process of human learning and can be used to accumualte the knowledge of the past technical and/or fundamental signal patterns (just like the mind of professional forex traders does) for the purpose of the future currency price forecasting.

Quote: "A mechanical approach to the markets can be successful and this is backed up by the fact that approximately 80% of the $30 billion in the managed futures industry is traded by exact systematic methods", from the "The Ultimate Trading Guide" by John R. Hill, George Pruitt, and Lundy Hill.
2.2. Components of a Forex Trading System.

A regular forex trading system consists of two subsystems - the entry system and the exit system. These systems can operate on a different or the same set of inputs. The inputs can be technical or fundamental signals.A system consists of a number of rules which interpret the signals that it receives. The entry system evaluates the signals to determine if and at which level the positions should be opened. The exit system evaluates the signals to determine if and at which level the open positions should be closed.

The propose of an entry system is to find market points which allow to open positions with high potential reward and low potential risk (high reward-to-risk ratio). The risk is defined as the pip distance from the entry price to the next support or resistance level lying opposite to the entry direction (above entry for sell and below entry for buy). The reward is defined as the pip distance from the entry price to the next support or resistance level lying in the direction of the entry (above entry for buy and below entry for sell). It is generally advised that the traders accept only the trades with the reward-to-risk ratio of over 2 (e.g. risk=60 pips, reward=130 pips). All the same, depending on the accuracy of a trading system (i.e. the percentage of the winning trades of all the past trades) this requirement might be shifted to a lower or a higher value without sacrificing the profitability of the system. This is because the true measure of the long term profitability of a forex trading system is neither the average per-trade reward-to-risk ratio nor the accuracy of the system but the combination of these two measures which is calculated as the mathematical expectation of a trading system. In the absence of the accuracy measure of a trading system (as is the case with some discretionary trading systems) - the trader ought strive to find entries with the greatest possible reward-to-risk ratio.

Note: Elliott wave analysis allows to find entries with extremely high reward-to-risk ratios (e.g. just check some of reports on MTPredictor's site). It is worth noting that MTPredictor automatically calculates the reward-to-risk ratios and helps to find optimum entry points based on these ratios. Some Elliot wave software developers (e.g. Advanced Get) also supply their subscribers with detailed Elliott wave trading plans.

The aim of an exit system is to protect the capital base and the unrealized profits. The capital base is shielded by ensuring that the trades are exited with a fixed loss when the reasons for holding them are no longer valid. This is done by triggering a stop-loss order on your forex brokerage account when the price crosses the level which defined your risk at the entry. If you are a discretionary trader, forcing yourself to place the slop-loss on each trade and to stick to it no matter what will make you very selective about your entries - which ought increase your profitability. The unrealized profits are protected either by a take-profit order which is triggered on your brokerage account when the price reaches the level which defined your profit at the entry or with the help of the trailing stop-loss which gradually locks in more profits as the price moves in your favour. In fact, the trailing stop-loss exit can be more suitable than the fixed take-profit exit if you wish to profit from the extending "character" of some impulse waves. In such a event the trailing stop-loss can be placed just a few pips opposite to the trendline which defines impulse wave. There is one more type of exit which can be used to protect the trader from missing trading opportunities - the time exit. A time exit is triggered if a trade hasn't reached either its stop-loss or take-profit level in the specified period of time. Exiting such trades reduces the chances that the capital will be tied up when better opportunities appear on the other currency pairs.

Note: Most forex newswires (e.g. Marketnews) are a great source of real-time information on the location of the major support and resistance levels and clusters of large orders that are watched by professional forex traders and which can be used to manually update the position of your trailing stop-loss.
2.3. Development of a Currency Trading System.

Making a mechanical forex trading system involves a number of steps: 1) Selecting the inputs for the trading system - technical analysis or fundamental analysis tools which will generate the signals for the system; 2) Developing the rule-set which will operate on these signals; 3) Optimizing the parameters of the analysis tools used to produce the signals; 4) Backtesting and forwardtesting the system over historical price data. Each of these steps is covered in more detail below:
2.3.1. Selecting the Inputs for the Trading System

It is important to base your selection of inputs to the system on a sensible premise about the way the currency markets operate. As an example, you can use 200-day moving average to determine if the market is in a long-term up or down trend because a large proportion of professional forex traders use this technical tool to measure market trendiness. It is also better to combine technical analysis tools of different type and scale because this increases the chances of finding high-probability entry points (those that are likely to be followed by sharp currency price moves in your favour), which should, in turn, contribute to the overall system accuracy.

If you use technical tools only on the higher time-frame charts like the daily or the weekly charts this will increase the duration of the trades and the time periods out of the market - because the signals will take longer to form. Either of these outcomes can have detrimental impact on the trader and investor morale during the inevitable losing streaks as is shown by our forex trading simulator (Please note: The size of this page is 0,6 Mbs and it requires that you have Flash installed and Javascript enabled in your browser). which can last longer than they are naturally prepared to wait. This makes it important to focus on lower time-frame charts (e.g. hourly charts) for signal generation which will lead to shorter trade durations and, consequently, to quicker recoveries from the drawdowns. Shorter trade durations can also help to the trader to defeat the temptation to overtrade because he or she can expect to see the next entry signal in the next couple of days - not in the next couple of weeks.

Quote: "Your freedom to choose your time-frame is too valuable to lose. Investors and margined speculators, on the other hand, can choose their own time-frames. This is one of their positional advantages, to use a favourite notion of Larry Hite* , one of the founders of Mint Investment Corp* - one of the largest of the futures fund operators. Investors and speculators can choose. Obviously it makes sense to choose time frames which match any natural rhythms that can be discerned in the currency markets." John Percival in his book "The Way of the Dollar".

Note: If you are using the Elliott Wave analysis your average holding period will depend on the degree of the impulse or corrective waves that you are trading.

Choosing which fundamental factors are best for your forex trading system (e.g. as inputs to your neural network) can be very hard because the effect of various economic indicators on the currency prices changes with time. In other words, the strength of correlation between the price of a currency pair and the fundamental factors relevant to it is not fixed (even with interest rate differentials). In contrast, the relationship between the price patterns (especially the classical price patterns) and trader psychology (the driving force behind most important price moves) remains fairly stable over the years. This is the reason why the forex traders are encouraged to dedicate most of their efforts to building trading systems around the technical analysis.

Another all-important question is the time horizon of the prediction that the trader is trying to make with his system. Better not to try to forecast currency prices too far into the future. This is because the number and the complexity of interaction of various technical and fundamental factors rises geometrically with each trading day. It is, therefore, best to "leave" this task to high-end investment banks and houses which alone have the capacity to perform the necessary calculations inherent in longer-term currency course forecasting. It is more practical for the typical currency trader to concentrate on capturing the so-called "knee-jerk" market reactions driven by crowd emotionalism through the analysis of the current technical or fundamental conditions.

Quote: "Rule 5: Be prepared for anything don't try to predict what will happen or when. Investing is a skill, not a science. The Zen swordsman dicsniplines body and mind to counter any blow spontaneously; he does not anticipate the moves of an opponent, for that impedes his ability to react. Likewise, professional investors know they cannot control the real estate or stock market, let alone the global economy. Instead, they train themselves to be financially intelligent, to think confidently and creatively when opportunities or problems arise." one of the The Seven Rules of Investing given in Robert Kiyosaki's book "You Can Choose to Be Rich".

You should also try not to include too many indicators (over 12) in your forex trading system. This is because probability that the system will perform like it did in the past diminishes as you add more indicators to your system. As a rule, the larger the number of indicators in your system the longer the period of historical currency price data you need to backtest the system on.

Note: There is no necessity to learn all the available indicators and technical analysis methods before you can start creating your own robust trading systems. It is usually enough to master just a few "basic" technical indicators and formations to start combining them to identify high probability entry and exit points. The fundamental and technical reports issues by the investment banks are one of the best sources of information on which technical and/or fundamental signals are watched by the professional trading community that you can include in your forex trading system. In the long run it is best to stick to a sound forex trading strategy, that has high probability of being profitable in the long-run, than to dissipate your capital among a variety of "promising" methods.
2.3.2. Developing the Rule-Set which will Operate on the Signals

You can create these rules based on your observation of how the prices move in relation to various technical and fundamental indicators. For example, you might notice that currency prices tend to resume trending behaviour after they correct toward and touch 200-day moving average. You can use this observance to formulate a rule which will enter the markets when the prices bounce off from the 200-day moving average. You could also notice that the prices tend to stop trending when they touch the outer daily Bollinger bands. You can use this information to create a rule which will exit the trades once the prices penetrate the outer daily Bollinger Band. Because making rule-sets for mechanical trading systems forces you to quantify your insights about the market this practice aids to clarify them.

The rule-set of a forex trading system is in essence the clarified version of the weighing algorithms that you naturally create in your mind as you learn the technical and fundamental analysis and observe the price action. I say "weighing" because most of the technical rules are transcribed in your mind as fuzzy patterns (e.g. "The longer the shadows of a doji the more likely the reversal" or "The steeper the trendline - the more bullish or bearish the market sentiment."). When you make the trading system, you transfer your knowledge to the computer in the form that can be understood by it. Admittedly, the quality of the computerized model very often will fall short of the actual mental model that you keep in your head. Nevertheless, the real advantage of the "mechanicizing" your market knowledge is the power to objectively determine the validity of your trading ideas by the process of the backtesting. It should be noted that the closest the computers approach to simulating the complexity of human comprehension of the market patterns is in the neural network packages.

Neural network packages can be especially effective if you wish to model your way of weighing the strength of support or resistance levels. For example, if you believe that fibonacci retracements are more reliable entry points if they are confirmed by reversal candlestick patterns and/or RSI divergence you can "ask" a neural network to search for past occurrences of this pattern combination and determine the actual numeric weight that should be placed on each of these technical signals for the entry or exit to occur. This process is very advantageous because it allows the computer to extend your natural pattern recognition ability by perfecting (or objectifying) the weights associated with each technical input/signal. This way you can objectively measure the strength or the beauty of the technical setups that you encounter in your trading (e.g. the resultant model might require the position to be opened if the total sum of signal weighs is bigger than 0,5 where a reversal candlestick signal is "worth" 0,15, fibonacci retracement is "worth" 0,3 and the RSI divergence is "worth" 0,45). In essence, your forex trading system is the description of how beautiful your trading setups should be, where "beauty" is defined as the convergence of confirming signals from different type and/or scale technical analysis tools. Advanced users of the neural networks can go even further by tying the position size (within the maximum percentage value set by their money management system) to the strength or the beauty of the technical setup. If done decently this practice will allow them to make the most of the best trading opportunities while simultaneously reducing the exposure on the less promising setups.

Meta4: An fascinating parallel to weighing the signals in order to determine if the position should be taken or not is the way people fall in love. Each individual carries a certain number of unconscious or semi-conscious qualifiers that "describe" in more or less fuzzy terms the appearance, the character, the temperament of their likely mate. When you meet the person who posses enough of these traits (i.e. above some "threshold" or unconscious minimum) the cascade of the confirming signals sets your mind off into the love state. A similar process occurs in the mind of discretionary trader when the market action through all of its technical and/or fundamental signals (i.e. "when all the pieces fit") activates the hunch or intuition response from him or her. If you compare the brain of a discretionary trader to a neural network the hunch finds its direct expression in the output neuron. The similarity between the process of falling in love and experiencing a hunch is probably behind such market advices as "do not marry your trades" or "do not fall in love with your trades". To stretch the similarity further we can compare a stop-loss order to the practice employed by some of the married couples called the "boundary". The boundary is the some form of behaviour unacceptable to the other spouse which if violated will lead to the end of relationship. Yet another analogue is between adding to a losing position and trying to win a favour of an unloving partner - the more you invest the harder it is to let go and the more likely you are to end up destroyed financially (emotionally in the relationships). As a final comparison the neural networks allow to model the connections among the ideas in the human mind in a similar way that a website through all its external and internal links permits to express the specific mental idea-network of its creator.

Quote: "I use all forms of technical analysis, but interpret them through gut feel. I do not believe in mathematical systems that always approach markets in the same way. Using myself as the "system," I constantly change the input to achieve the same output—profit!", Mark Weinstein in Jack D. Schwager's book "Market Wizards".

Note: It should be marked that the effectiveness of your model will always be only as good as the inputs that you give or "feed" to it (as someone said - "Garbage in, garbage out"). This is because computers merely extend your pattern recognition ability and cannot be relied upon to think up a winning system on their own - if this was false, the markets would have been cornered long ago by the guy with the most powerful computer.
2.3.3. Optimizing the Parameters of the Analysis Tools used to Produce the Signals

Some forex charting packages (e.g. TradeStation) permit to optimize the parameters of the technical indicators that you use in your forex trading system. Optimization allows to find parameter values of your indicators that result in the biggest profit (most frequently used measure of system performance in optimization) from the trading system over the past data. An good example of the optimization is looking for the best time-period parameters for a two-moving-averages crossover system. Commonly the periods of two moving averages are stepped from 1 to 50 in steps of 1 and the trading results for each of around 250 moving average combinations are recorded and then sorted to find the most profitable combination. Such process of going though all possible parameter combinations is called brute force optimization. As the number of indicators used in your system increases arithmetically the number of potential parameter combinations increases geometrically. The total number of parameter combinations is, therefore, said to be subject to combinatorial explosion. For example, to optimize a system with 5 indicators each of which has 50 different parameter values you would have to cycle through 312 500 000 (50^5) possible parameter combinations. The only way you can expect to quickly solve such huge optimization problems in your lifetime is through the use of generic optimizers (e.g. OptEvolve for the TradeStation or NeuroShell Trader Professional).

Optimization of the time-period parameter of the cycle-based indicators like Stochastics permits to automatically adapt them to the cycles present in the market instead of using the default time-period values - which is the method originally used by the developer of Stochastics.

As a final note, try not to over optimize your indicators because majority of the professional forex traders use default indicator settings. You are looking for trading setups where the smart money will be acting (as opposed to the general investor public) so it doesn't make much practical sense to use indicator settings that hardly any professional forex trader is aware of.

2.3.4. Backtesting and Forwardtesting the System over Historical Price Data.

Backtesting allows to see how your system would have performed if it was run during some period in the past. You optimize indicator parameters using the price data in the backtesting period. It is crucial that the time period that you backtest your system on is representative of the currency pair that you wish to trade - it should include all types of market conditions (trending, rangebound) and it should be as recent as possible. Once you are comfortable with the performance of your system you forward test it - you run it on the out-of-sample price data (the price data that would be immediate future to the backtesting period). This way you can see if the system is able to perform likewise to the way it did during the backtesting. The closer the system's performance during the forward testing is to its performance during the backtesting the more robust the system and the more assured you can be that it will continue to trade in a similar manner during the real-time trading. You could also wish to trade your system on a forex demo account for some time before beginning to trade it with the real money.

Backtesting aids the trader or investor to determine if they are prepared psychologically for the live trading of a forex trading system. By examiningthe past performance of a system they can decide if the size of the drawdown, the number of the consecutive losses and the average duration of the trades are acceptable for them. For the complete list of the performance measures that you could wish to review before starting to trade with professionally-created mechanical trading systems please visit the forex signals page. In contrast to the mechanical trading systems the discretionary trading systems cannot be backtested because the discretionary traders cannot guarantee that they will react to a similar set of signals in the future in the same manner that they did in the past.
2.4. Implementation of a Forex Trading System.

There are two ways you can implement a forex trading system - either manually or automatically. Discretionary trading systems can only be followed by the manual placing of the trades. Mechanical trading systems are better followed though the use of automation.

If you are following a discretionary trading system you will be generally screening the currency markets for the signals that you have outlined in your checklist. The checklist is the description of the technical or fundamental trading signals that your trading system's rule-set operates on. The checklist could also contain the guidelines on how often you should check your forex charts/forex newswires for the signals (using the economic news calendar provided by the forex newswires as your fundamental signal timing tool); in contrast, the mechanical forex trading systems will be going through their own checklists with every second, 24 hours a day - which no human being can possibly do. Having a elaborate checklist will help you to be more disciplined in the application of your system. It is better to write your checklist in the form of the questionnaire. You can automate your search for some technical signals with the help of those forex charting packages which allow you to set up the sound or email/SMS alerts to notify you whenever the technical signal of your interest is generated (e.g. in Intellicharts). The forex bank reports and the forex newswires frequently issue mini reports of technical conditions on the market which most often are merely the "filled-in" versions of the same checklist.

Manual implementation of the mechanical signals is NOT recommended. Since the signals are generated by the computer you will always feel compelled to double-check them against you own experience - since no computer can model your thinking with 100% accuracy. This can lead to the delays and/or missing of some of the signals which can potentially undermine the system profitability, that rests on the principle of taking each signal exactly at the time it is generated. A lot is being said about the widespread lack of the discipline in taking the signals of the mechanical forex trading systems. This trouble can be easily overcome though the use of a reliable signal automation service. You solve all emotional troubles associated with the manual trading of the signals by simply automating this process. Elimination of the emotions from the trading through the use of the automated mechanical forex trading systems should explain their popularity amidst the multi-billion dollar hedge fund industry.

An crucial aspect of mechanical system trading is the monitoring of its real-time performance. The concealed market dynamics (a particular way of reacting to technical or fundamental signals that an important grouping of forex market participants shares - or, systematic mass investor impulsiveness) that your system has captured during the back-testing may be switching or might already have changed at the time you start to trade your system with the real money. The single way you can say that the market dynamics that you are focusing on have changed or not is to compare the real-time and the past system perofrmance. If the system continues to perform like it did on the backtesting then you can conclude that the market dynamics it targets have not yet changed. If you notice important deviations in such system performance measures like the maximum peak-to-valley drawdown, the average duration of trades, the average value of the profits/losses, the maximum number of consecutive winners/losses, it can signal that an important shift in market dynamics is taking place (e.g. a group of investment banks have modified their trading models). The fastest way to update your system to the changes in market dynamics is available for the neural network packages - which allow to retrain your model over the most recent price history. Retraining a neural network involves readjusting its matrix of weighs which allows it to stay attuned to the current market conditions. If mechanical trading systems suffer form the paradigm shifts on the market - the same can be said of the human mind (discretionary trading systmes) which tends to be very inflexible once a partciluar way of doing things (i.e. trading style) is ingrained in it.
2.5. Mastering System Trading.

To master system trading you ought have the patience to wait calmly for the entry or the exit signal from your own forex trading system and act only on them - irregardless of the technical or fundamental conditions that you see in-between these signals. It is no wonder why the best traders prefer to compare themselves to skilful predators when they describe their trading style:

Quote: "Top traders love the hunting metaphor to describe what they do. One of them, for example, claims he is like a cheetah. The cheetah can outrun any animal, but it still stalks its prey. It won't attack until it is right on top of its prey. In addition, the cheetah usually waits for a weak or lame animal to get close. Another top trader told me that he trades like a lion. He watches the herd for weeks until something other than his presence causes the herd to panic. When the herd panics, he then chases a weak or lame animal that appears most confused. The difference between an average hunter and a really skilled animal like the swift cheetah or the cunning lion is that the skilled hunter waits until the odds are overwhelmingly in his favor", from "The Ten Tasks of Top Trading" by Van K. Tharp.

Quote: "Much of the time, even professionals don't have a clear picture of what is going on, but they have learned to have the patience to wait for select, specific setups. You must learn to trade on only the most recognizable and reliable patterns." from the "Street Smarts: High Probability Short-Term Trading Strategies".

The most important rule of systematic trading is to take each and every trading signal that your system generates. Only by taking all the signals at the time they are generated can you count on replicating the past performance of your system. If you have the slightest suspicion that you will not be able to take all the signals - either due to the timing of the signals or your busy schedule - you should arrange for the signals to be automatically traded.

At the end of the day, a forex trading system just like the money management system serves to protect yourself from your own destructive tendencies which very often mask themselves as the "well-meaning" hunches and gut responses. This doesn't mean that you shouldn't trust your instincts - only that you should base your trades on them only if you can eliminate emotions from your decisions. This is because a trading system is a method to profit from other traders' emotional instability, therefore, if you do not control your own emotions you will not be able to profit from any system. Removing the emotions from your manual trading can take years (!!!)- so it can be more practical and profitable to simply autotrade your system.

Even if you start your currency trading career by following a professionally created forex trading system you will receive full satisfaction from the trading - in terms of profit and self-actualization - only if you make and trade a successful system of your own. One of the best books which can help you to start this fascinating journey is "Mechanical Trading Systems: Pairing Trader Psychology with Technical Analysis" by Richard L. Weissman.

Quote: " In the meantime, it cannot be emphasized enough that, at the very least, genuine success in trading markets involves the adoption of a trading system. Without the discipline of such a system, the very best efforts are likely to be doomed to failure." Tony Plummer in his book "Forecasting Financial Markets: The Psychology of Successful Investing".

There are no certainties in the forex trading, since the future will never be exactly the same as the past. There are only probabilities, which you can systematically put in your favour with the help of a established forex trading system.


There is no hype in this headline. This is the absolute truth. The following 13 secrets generated 992 pips net profits for me in 15 trading days.
1 do not over expose your account .maintain an account exposure of between 10% and 30%.

2 Always trust god to find and join the trend early. Always learn to test the strength of the trend with the ADX.

3 Understand your best entry and exit points using pivot points and/or fibonnacci retracements

4 Understand the key japanese candlesticks Reversal patterns.

5 Know when the market is down or when the trend is weak and trade accordingly or stay away.

6 Only use take profit according to predetermined market potential.

7 Buy in oversold markets: stochastic oscilliator and RSI can be used in determining this

8 sell in overbought market: stochastic oscilliator and RSI can be used in determining this.

9 Never entertain fear even when the market moves against you. If you have a good trading system., it will surely come back in your favour.

10 Do not be greedy: Show contentment in all things and this demon will be far from you.

11 Do not over trade: Learn to draw a line between over trading and fear.

12 Always pray before making a trading decision: There is always a guiding light from god if only you will trust him.

!3 Rely on the holy spirit for guidance. He is very dependable and will never leave noy forsake you if you surrender the battle to him.

Send a blank e mail to to Get a free report on a powerful forex trading system that generates an average of 500 pips($5000 on a standard account) monthly plus how $5100 was turned to $40,000 without lifting a finger

About the Author

Vin is a veteran forex trader who have trained so many professional forex traders all over the world. There is no hype in this headline. This is the absolute truth. The following 13 secrets generated 992 pips net profits for me in 15 trading days. 1 do not over expose your account .maintain an account exposure of between 10% and 30%. 2 Always trust god to find and join the trend early. Always learn to test the strength of the trend with the ADX. 3 Understand your best entry and exit points using pivot points and/or fibonnacci retracements 4 Understand the key japanese candlesticks Reversal patterns. 5 Know when the market is down or when the trend is weak and trade accordingly or stay away. 6 Only use take profit according to predetermined market potential. 7 Buy in oversold markets: stochastic oscilliator and RSI can be used in determining this 8 sell in overbought market: stochastic oscilliator and RSI can be used in determining this. 9 Never entertain fear even when the market moves against you. If you have a good trading system., it will surely come back in your favour. 10 Do not be greedy: Show contentment in all things and this demon will be far from you. 11 Do not over trade: Learn to draw a line between over trading and fear. 12 Always pray before making a trading decision: There is always a guiding light from god if only you will trust him. !3 Rely on the holy spirit for guidance. He is very dependable and will never leave noy forsake you if you surrender the battle to him. Send a blank e mail to to Get a free report on a powerful forex trading system that generates an average of 500 pips($5000 on a standard account) monthly plus how $5100 was turned to $40,000 without lifting a finger

15 Major Day Trading Hints

The reports of the society making immeasurable gains in stocks markets have been delivered in newspapers around the world.So the first timer investors have been attracted to the stock market. Day trading is one of the organizations gaining in demand with investors. But this day trading has full of risks. However you can make immeasurable gains in day trading,you are also expected to expend huge money.On the other hand, if you want to do day trading the following tips and guidelines are here to make you succeed:

Who is day trader?

A person who actively associate within stock market and buys and sells frequently in a day to make quick income is called a day trader.

What are the following tips to succeed in day trading? Here are the 15 list of tips to guide you to succeed:

1. Study the fundamentals of the system like the functioning of the market, schedule to buy and sell, which way the stocks will be operate, and the long and short calls.You consider also learn to take care of the profits while cutting down the losses.

2. In view of excel in day trading is a time consuming process, apply the trading platform available on the trading websites before you actually start.

3. Avoid the thought of making losses let you to scare. Use strategies like stop orders to reduce your losses.

4. Do not worry, If you suffer some loss, as it is a portion of the process.

5. Stop trading, once you have earned your expected profit. Do not hunger after more money and throw away your profit.

6. Assuming that the market does not meet your expectations on each and every particular day, do not trade.

7. During the time that your experience in day trading increases, you gain the ability to foreknow the direction in which the stock price moves. But avoid to go for the lowermost or the topmost stocks.

8. If you find it crucial to decide in which way the market is going, do not trade but just paused and wait.

9. Keep up a record of the results of the day trading. It give permission you to learn the things which are effective, as well as ineffective.

10. Acquire some information about buying and selling tactics of successful day traders. These traders commonly sell when there is good news and buy when there is bad news.

11. Being aloof and professional is the main characteristics of being trader and don't be emotional.

12. Have confidence on your instincts as rely upon excessively on the analysis means skipping some good trading chances.

13. Be trained and use most important strategies to trade.

14. Concentrate and/or focus yourself only on a selected stocks. Sharpen your attention on various stocks will make it difficult for you to track the movement of each stock.

15. Educate yourself in a new trading strategies daily and use them to your benefit.

How to develop a profitable forex trading stratey

Before you plunge into one of the most liquid, unpredictable and profitable markets in the world, there are some things that you should know about before putting your money in the hands of a forex broker. When money is involved, there are a lot of things you should consider, and these are the key to developing the best Forex strategy, for you to start making a profit. For instance, there is a great deal of money management that must be put in place before you run off with a lot of hope in your pocket. Hope is not going to pay the bills. Your money is and you need to know when and how much of your money you are going to use.

Always set yourself some realistic targets and limits to ensure that you do not spend too much money. Also, do not fall prey to the gambling endemic that is afflicting many Forex traders - this means they simply cannot stop trading no matter how much they loose and they often make irrational decisions in order to 'win' back the money that they have lost. Set yourself some parameters and stick to them, you will regret the fact that you account has run dry and you start to owe the brokerage a sum of money. Also, always have some risk capital on hand so that when things do go wrong, you will be able to bail yourself out. The total sum of your investment and risk capital should be an amount that you are able to afford.

Nobody should go into trading with their life savings in tow. The capital you put into the commodities market should be capital you can spend and if you do lose, will not have an adverse affect on your life style. That said, Forex trading is all about watching market patterns and market psychology. Unlike normal and traditional commodities trading, many people would say that the Forex market falls into a pattern when it comes to either a crisis or an upheaval within currencies. Issues like inflation, political violence and economic decisions can adversely affect the performance of the currency pair you have chosen. But there is always a pattern and this pattern is the structure of many trading strategies of experienced investors. For example, you must learn that there are many 'safe' currencies in the market that investors flock to when there is wind of a calamity in global economies. This is just one aspect.

Market psychology is ruled by major decisions my collective moves in the market. Because of the fact that huge multicontinental banks are the biggest driving forces within the FX market, they have pre planned moves when situations come up. Your job as an investor is to read the signs and react accordingly. The good thing about Forex is that is a very liquid market, so you can pull out any time you want - or on the flip side can invest in a click of a mouse. With these in mind when investing, you will have the key to developing the best Forex trading strategy.

Why "Follow-Through" Is Imperative For Your Market Position

Endurance is counted as a high merit in great accomplishments, especially in forex market. Great men frequently advise to be consistent in big changes of market tendencies and "Follow Through" in breakthroughs.

If you have made a price change one day and you get success out of it then you should continue your endeavors in the same route in coming days and this trading movement is called the "Follow Through".

But this kind of breakthrough is not that much simple. Market does not accept big changes frequently. It goes back over those trends present previously in the trade and at the end of the day when all is going to end, forex prices repeat the same trend seen some days before.

Nobody is a faultless and ideal merchant. All the brokers and traders constantly discover a lot about the trading and aim not to repeat their past mistakes and blunders. I can give you many instances about my learning and it all happens when you don't show patience and consistency. When you don't wait and take a great step thinking it would be a huge success, but it is not all what we think.

I was planning about the corn market and had a keen eye on it for a long time. I was waiting and hanging around for the market to show a big change in a persistent downside trend of the prices and counteract it. One day there appeared a little upside move in the corn price but was not near to counteract it. I was out of my workplace for coming days and was unable to meet my broker or the info about the rates. I made a call to my dealer and ordered corn for a buy-stop at a price which was much higher than the downside trend. It did so because I thought if it worked, it would be a very tough change in the price to counteract the constant downside trend and it will indicate an uphill breakthrough in the every day price bar map. That day I had some jinx and blip in my mind which was disapproving my decision and asking me to take time and "follow through" the price tendency to make the price break sure. Next morning the corn's price inclination was high enough to strike my end and made me "in" the market. But it was not for a long time. Corn rates again overturned and threw my corn prices out soon.

The perception after observation is always true. But this mistake taught me the significance of patience and consistency to give the market enough time to indicate follow through movement to make a prospective trading arrangement sure. But a dealer also has some risk of absence and getting advantage of a big price change if he keeps on waiting. But it is more sensible to be cautious and wait for the market to verify the follow through movements in the coming days.

Sometimes market shows a relaxing session in the price movement and then verifies the great changes in the coming days. But mostly the follow through movement is going to come in the next session if expected.

Saturday, October 31, 2009

Forex Trading System - A Key To Successful Forex Trading And Trading For A Living

Every one has his days when no matter how well he has planned out his trades, he may find some of his trades not performing to what is planned. It is only natural for one to feel upset, but for the follower of a forex trading system, making money or losing money from that trade is not the paramount objective.

Why is this so?

For the trader who employs a forex trading system, he can still face the losing trade with a smile, because he has had followed through the trading signals in a disciplined way, and it is only when a trader follows a system, he can be sure of keeping his losses small and to live to trade again another day.

By using a forex trading system, the trader can have a cool head, and can face his trades rather unemotionally. He can execute his trades following pre-determined price levels of initial stop loss, trailing loss and computed and projected price profit.

He knows his tolerable level of loss, his threshold of pain - and of course, his risk to reward ratio even before he trades.

Now when a trader has a trading system and follows through the trading plan, making profits is a natural result when he makes a correct trade. But when his trade is wrong, his forex trading system will very quickly show him that the direction of his trade is wrong, so that he is out of the game fairly quickly.

I am often flabbergasted at some very broad claims of some traders who condemn day trading systems and relegate them to the garbage bin. When you look at forex trading systems, review them quickly by peer recommendation whenever possible. By peer recommendation, I mean you can ask existing traders their experience on the trading system, and how they are doing with it. Posting to the numerous reliable trading forums will allow you to receive some independent reviews fairly quickly. At the same time, my personal experience, and that of many other professional traders is that day trading can be profitable, though it is never easy to day trade. Otherwise, how is it that so many day traders are able to earn their income day trading the short swings of the market daily for a living? So it is important for you to have a broad view of forex trading systems if you are contemplating of learning or purchasing any trading system that relates to day trading.

If you ever wish to trade successfully, whether you day trade or swing trade, it is important that you have a trading system that will allow you to approach trading in a disciplined manner. It is only when you are a disciplined trader that you can see consistent large gains and small losses.

The opportunities of trading the Forex hedged grid system

I have seen the hedged grid system been used successfully (and highly unsuccessfully) over the last few years. Unfortunately the failures tend to discourage traders from taking advantage of this great system. I have found that the failures are mainly due to ignorance, impatience and greed (common reasons for trading failure).

In a nutshell the grid system uses the following methodology. You start by buying and selling a currency. When the price moves a predetermined distance (grid leg) you cash in the positive leg, leave the negative leg and buy and sell again. Sooner or later the system goes positive and you would then cash in when it is positive.

This is a brief summary of the content of our free hedged grid trading course available on Please refer to this course for more details of how money is made. The attraction is that the system is reasonably mechanical, can be programmed and does not take much supervision as exclusively entry orders are used.

Money is made when the price retraces 100%, 50%, 33% at various levels. This starts looking like a strategy that supports the Fibonacci concept. The grid system is also based on the nature of the market to trade sideways 80% of the time and to trend 20% of the time.

The dangers are that what if the price does not retrace and continues to trend. The Grid system can not make money in a trending market – full stop. One has to realize that. You therefore need Strategies to minimize damage during these periods:-

Firstly I have found that the biggest mistake made by traders is that they select a very small grid leg sizes e.g. 20 to 30 pips. This is a recipe for disaster. The trick is to use big leg sizes between 150 and 300 pips. What this does is that it sometimes turns a trending phase into movement in a sideways market. I would typically use 300 pips for the GBPJPY and 150 pips for the EURUSD for instance.

Secondly there is no rule that says that the legs have to be the same size. So I change my leg sizes in trending markets to be even bigger. If I started with 150 for the 1st leg I would go to 200 for the 2nd leg and 250 for the 3rd leg etc. This makes sure that I am carrying less loss making transactions in a trend.

Thirdly – sometimes it is wise to increase the number of lots with the trend compared to the numbers against the trend in a good trend. However be aware of having the same number of sell and buy transactions. All you will have done was lock in your current status in a 100% hedge.

Fourthly – This is the biggest change and most important one that I personally have made in my grid trading strategy. Always cash in all your transactions when your system is positive and when the price reaches the end of one of your grid legs. By cashing in you are reducing the risk of carrying negative lots in a trending market. This also gives you an opportunity to re-assess the market conditions.

Fifthly:- Cash in a start again is always an option. One of my strategies is to cash in all my open positions when the 3rd leg of my grid is reached and start again. Experience has taught me that this is a short term pain that goes away very quickly and is soon forgotten.

People that have traded the grid system will immediately see how the above approaches will reduce the risks of exponential losses building up in a strongly trending market. Please feel free to contact Mary McArthur at for clarification on any items discussed above. She has numerous examples of successful applications of grid trading

This article is part of a series and many more will follow on Grid trading, money management and Forex Trading Strategies.

forex signal provider? which one?

So you decided to make full time leaving from foreign exchange market? Or you are going to supplement your income from here? You have set up yourself with proper broker available. I believe you spent hundred of hours in front of PC trying to put together all maths and physics involving currency market. Now you watching business news in the morning paper and following CNBC channel to be on the top with latest information from exchange market. You trading your demo account trying to figure out how to make it all work? So? Does it? No?

Face the fact that in currency market all is possible and there is no golden rule to follow. There are so many aspects to consider that you will need at least another head to set this puzzle together.

But do not worry there is a hope that can make it work.

Signal solutions for forex trading. People who traded forex for a long time and developed their own systems to enter and exit with profit strategies. They will share this knowledge with you for varieties of prices from usd49 to usd499 a month for those precious information. Problem is which one will suit you best. Are they scams? How do I know?

For medium advanced forex trader is almost impossible to choose proper forex signal system, which is not a scam, or at least not profitable. There is bulk of forex signals providers out there. They all offer their signal solution to trade currency with success.

Advice is that you will have to establish what type of trader are you? Do you want to trade quickly or maybe over the days or weeks? What losses can you manage and how much money you want to invest.

As long as you know al that it is a time to pick up signal trade provider.

Few things worth researching are: performance, service offered and rewievs of the signal. Search on forum for another users of the product you are interested in and ask for comment. Every profitable system should be up on collective2 with real track performance. Look for service offered. You will quickly find out that only few offer free trail-option to try signals before you pay. Demand performance evidence.

But while doing all that hard work choosing your automat forex signal system remember that you will have to totally follow it without exceptions to make most out of it. Any even small innovation may have dramatic results in your own gains.

Remember that your future profits will depend on your signal provider so calculate carefully and make smart decisions.for more go to

Forex Trading Signal - A Free Simple to Understand Equation Which Makes Big Profits

Here we are going to look at a free Forex trading signal that makes big gains and has done for over 25 years and is used by some of the world's top traders in their Forex trading strategies. Let's take a look at it.

The signal doesn't even need trading software to generate it, you can actually do it in your head. The signal is credited to famous trader Richard Donchain who is considered the grandfather of modern trend following and he called it the four week Rule and this is the rule

1. When prices move to a new 4 month high buy a currency and hold it.

2. Wait for a new 4 week low to occur, liquidate the long and take a short position.

3. Always maintain a position long or short in the market and simply reverse on each new 4 week high or low.

The above rule could not be simpler but it works and if you test it, you will see how much money it makes and the reason it works is because it works on two pieces of logic which will never go out of date and there the following:

1. Markets trend up or down for sustained periods of time.

2. All major trends start and continue from major breakouts

This system over the long term, will catch a good chunk of profit from every major trend but despite the fact it works most traders won't use it for the following reasons:

1. They prefer the get rich quick route and buy a cheap automated software package with no independent verification of gains instead, the above Forex trading signal is proven and has a real track record over a quarter of a century.

2. It takes discipline to follow as its long term and traders have a problem with holding long term trends, they think trading frequently means more profits and its clear this is not true.

3. Most traders simply pass it buy because they think a signal so simple cant work but of course all the best systems are simple because they are so robust.

The 4 Week Rule, as stood the test of time and any trader can use it to seek Forex trading success. In the next article in this series we will look at how to add filters to the above trading signal to make it even more effective and also look at some of Richard Donchian's other Forex trading tools.

Trend Following System - Building a System For Triple Digit Annual Gains

Forex markets trend long term, they always have and they always will as long as we have a free market and the big trends which reflect the underlying economic cycle can last for many weeks, months or even years. If you learn to trend follow correctly you can make huge long term profits in around 30 minutes a day...

Many traders like to trade the market noise and trade short term but this is doomed to failure, as all short term volatility is random. If you trade the big trends you get better odds, more profits and spend less time on your trading. Lets look at trend following in more detail.

If you want to succeed at Forex trend following, you should keep the key points in mind below when formulating your Forex trading strategy.

Simple and Robust

The best trend following systems are simple and it's a fact that in Forex simple systems work better than complex ones, as they have fewer elements to break than complex ones. A graphic example of this is the free one we have on this site which has only one rule yet, test it and you will see how much money it makes. A Successful trend following system can be based on just looking at support and resistance and have a few indictors to confirm your view and that will work just fine.

Use Breakouts

All big trends start and continue from breakouts to new market highs or lows so if you are considering trend following, breakout methodology should be used in your Trading strategy. Breakouts are simple to understand and simply trade the reality of price change and trading breakouts is a highs odds way of trading Forex.

Trade Infrequently

I know traders that trade maybe once or twice a month and make triple digit gains and that's because they focus on the best high odds trades. You get nothing for effort in Forex trading, you're judged purely on results and if you are patient and wait for the best set ups you will increase your odds of success and reduce your work rate

Acceptance of Short Term Volatility

If you are tend following in Forex you are after trends that last for weeks, months or even years and you have to accept that you cannot predict tops or bottoms, you always have to give a bit back at the end of a trend and you also have to accept short term drawdown in equity against you as you follow the trend.

Long term trend following, requires patience and discipline but if you caught just 60% of every major trend, you would make a lot of money.


If you wish to make most of the forex trading opportunities, then auto forex system trading is something which could really assist you in this concern. Just select the best trading system and earn lots of money.

When it comes to earn lots of money with forex trading in an easiest manner, it is highly recommended to go for auto forex system trading. Now, you must be wondering why it is so. Well, before taking into the account of these systems, it is essential for you to consider their worth first. Basically, forex trade market works for twenty four hours a day. It means that opportunities of earning money can come at anytime. But, is it possible for you to monitor all these trade activities for the whole day? Well, the answer will definitely be no! Now, here comes the requirement of these auto forex system trading.

Such systems can assist you as a professional broker and that too without charging any monthly wages. Now, let us consider the functioning of these trading systems. Basically, these systems work upon the specific software which acts according to the growth or fall of the currency. It means that the decisions taken by auto trading system are the assurance of earning a lot of money.

In addition, these systems do not require you to sit in front of them to monitor their activities. They work for you throughout the whole day and as soon as any earning opportunity arrives, you are sure to grab that instantly. Although these systems are quite trendiest these days, but it doesn't mean that you should trust them blindly. As forex trading is a risky game and even a single mistake of yours could put you into halt. That's why it would be a prudent decision to go for a demo session of these systems.

In addition, make sure the system that you are going to deal with is tested under the practical conditions of forex market. You can also search over the Internet to find out the most appropriate auto forex system trading software for you. It doesn't matter which software you are using in the forex trading, the only thing which matters is your strategy to make the most out of it. Therefore, select the software that works according to your strategies.

Thursday, October 15, 2009

Successful Options Trading Strategies

When it comes to giving people the hope of becoming a millionaire overnight, the stock market excels. Every day we see evidence of stocks that have flown upwards as if they had wings, providing investors with a windfall of profits. It's inevitable that catching one of those stocks just before it takes off is an exciting possibility, inspiring the beginning trader to take the plunge. When you trade options, the stakes are raised, making those massive profits even more attainable, but the basics that underlie successful trading in the stock market are the same as those for trading options.

Once you start to look at trading stocks, you find yourself plunged into a confusing nightmare where hundreds if not thousands of people are pushing "their" system that is supposedly infallible. For a beginner, it's easy to get drawn into the complex net, believing that there must be a simple solution that will hand you the keys to stock market success. These keys will see you finding winner after winner, and making your fortune.

The reality, however, is that there are no keys that will find a winner every time. After all, if that was possible, how could anyone ever lose any money in the market? And if nobody loses, then how can someone else gain? The whole stock market would collapse.

Having said that, there are a number of very successful trading systems that work well over the long term. It's important to realize that a winning system is one that consistently delivers profit over a longer time frame - and part of the equation is that a percentage of trades will be losers. Once you learn to look at the bigger picture, rather than focusing on the individual trades, you'll be a lot more successful in the market.

There are a couple of approaches to the market that are popular across many systems. One is to take small losses when they happen, and let your winners run. So you might take six little losses, which are more than compensated for by one huge gain. This type of approach takes a lot of confidence and self-discipline, as it's very easy to give up if those six little losses all happen in a row, without a winner in sight.

Another approach is to take your profits after a certain percentage of gain, and occasionally put up with a medium sized loss. This system is nice if you like to see profits, because you don't run the risk of a stock that's risen suddenly dropping again and wiping out your profit - you took your profit early. However you also run the risk that the stock will continue to fly upwards and you miss out on that profit. This system can be risky, because you need a number of small profitable trades to cover one of the losses.

If you can't make up your mind which approach suits you, why not try more than one? You can always split your capital over a couple of portfolios, and use a different strategy for each portfolio. This can be time consuming, but at least you can then make a logical comparison of the choices and decide which one has worked best for you.

It's also important not to abandon your system the second you see a trade making a loss. Far too many traders think that they're only successful if every trade is a winner, which is ridiculous. Then the trader switches to another system, messes around with that for a while, sees a loss, and switches again. You need to find a system that gives you a good overall return, and stick to it. The more you chop and change, the higher your chances of losing more.

Most of the success that comes with trading comes from one source - and it's not the perfect trading system. It's all about you. Trading is more about psychology than watching the charts. You need to have the right character to be a successful trader. Self discipline, confidence, the ability to see the bigger picture, accepting losses as part of the game, controlling your fear and greed - all of these elements work together to make you a successful trader.

If you can identify a system that delivers a consistent profit, and have the discipline to stick with it even when an individual trade loses, then your chances of success are high. And remember - it's always good to start with pretend trades to get the hang on things, before you commit your life savings to the market.

Forex Options Market Overview

The forex options market started as an over-the-counter (OTC) financial vehicle for large banks, financial institutions and large international corporations to hedge against foreign currency exposure. Like the forex spot market, the forex options market is considered an "interbank" market. However, with the plethora of real-time financial data and forex option trading software available to most investors through the internet, today's forex option market now includes an increasingly large number of individuals and corporations who are speculating and/or hedging foreign currency exposure via telephone or online forex trading platforms.

Forex option trading has emerged as an alternative investment vehicle for many traders and investors. As an investment tool, forex option trading provides both large and small investors with greater flexibility when determining the appropriate forex trading and hedging strategies to implement.

Most forex options trading is conducted via telephone as there are only a few forex brokers offering online forex option trading platforms.

Forex Option Defined - A forex option is a financial currency contract giving the forex option buyer the right, but not the obligation, to purchase or sell a specific forex spot contract (the underlying) at a specific price (the strike price) on or before a specific date (the expiration date). The amount the forex option buyer pays to the forex option seller for the forex option contract rights is called the forex option "premium."

The Forex Option Buyer - The buyer, or holder, of a foreign currency option has the choice to either sell the foreign currency option contract prior to expiration, or he or she can choose to hold the foreign currency options contract until expiration and exercise his or her right to take a position in the underlying spot foreign currency. The act of exercising the foreign currency option and taking the subsequent underlying position in the foreign currency spot market is known as "assignment" or being "assigned" a spot position.

The only initial financial obligation of the foreign currency option buyer is to pay the premium to the seller up front when the foreign currency option is initially purchased. Once the premium is paid, the foreign currency option holder has no other financial obligation (no margin is required) until the foreign currency option is either offset or expires.

On the expiration date, the call buyer can exercise his or her right to buy the underlying foreign currency spot position at the foreign currency option's strike price, and a put holder can exercise his or her right to sell the underlying foreign currency spot position at the foreign currency option's strike price. Most foreign currency options are not exercised by the buyer, but instead are offset in the market before expiration.

Foreign currency options expires worthless if, at the time the foreign currency option expires, the strike price is "out-of-the-money." In simplest terms, a foreign currency option is "out-of-the-money" if the underlying foreign currency spot price is lower than a foreign currency call option's strike price, or the underlying foreign currency spot price is higher than a put option's strike price. Once a foreign currency option has expired worthless, the foreign currency option contract itself expires and neither the buyer nor the seller have any further obligation to the other party.

The Forex Option Seller - The foreign currency option seller may also be called the "writer" or "grantor" of a foreign currency option contract. The seller of a foreign currency option is contractually obligated to take the opposite underlying foreign currency spot position if the buyer exercises his right. In return for the premium paid by the buyer, the seller assumes the risk of taking a possible adverse position at a later point in time in the foreign currency spot market.

Initially, the foreign currency option seller collects the premium paid by the foreign currency option buyer (the buyer's funds will immediately be transferred into the seller's foreign currency trading account). The foreign currency option seller must have the funds in his or her account to cover the initial margin requirement. If the markets move in a favorable direction for the seller, the seller will not have to post any more funds for his foreign currency options other than the initial margin requirement. However, if the markets move in an unfavorable direction for the foreign currency options seller, the seller may have to post additional funds to his or her foreign currency trading account to keep the balance in the foreign currency trading account above the maintenance margin requirement.

Just like the buyer, the foreign currency option seller has the choice to either offset (buy back) the foreign currency option contract in the options market prior to expiration, or the seller can choose to hold the foreign currency option contract until expiration. If the foreign currency options seller holds the contract until expiration, one of two scenarios will occur: (1) the seller will take the opposite underlying foreign currency spot position if the buyer exercises the option or (2) the seller will simply let the foreign currency option expire worthless (keeping the entire premium) if the strike price is out-of-the-money.

Please note that "puts" and "calls" are separate foreign currency options contracts and are NOT the opposite side of the same transaction. For every put buyer there is a put seller, and for every call buyer there is a call seller. The foreign currency options buyer pays a premium to the foreign currency options seller in every option transaction.

Forex Call Option - A foreign exchange call option gives the foreign exchange options buyer the right, but not the obligation, to purchase a specific foreign exchange spot contract (the underlying) at a specific price (the strike price) on or before a specific date (the expiration date). The amount the foreign exchange option buyer pays to the foreign exchange option seller for the foreign exchange option contract rights is called the option "premium."

Please note that "puts" and "calls" are separate foreign exchange options contracts and are NOT the opposite side of the same transaction. For every foreign exchange put buyer there is a foreign exchange put seller, and for every foreign exchange call buyer there is a foreign exchange call seller. The foreign exchange options buyer pays a premium to the foreign exchange options seller in every option transaction.

The Forex Put Option - A foreign exchange put option gives the foreign exchange options buyer the right, but not the obligation, to sell a specific foreign exchange spot contract (the underlying) at a specific price (the strike price) on or before a specific date (the expiration date). The amount the foreign exchange option buyer pays to the foreign exchange option seller for the foreign exchange option contract rights is called the option "premium."

Please note that "puts" and "calls" are separate foreign exchange options contracts and are NOT the opposite side of the same transaction. For every foreign exchange put buyer there is a foreign exchange put seller, and for every foreign exchange call buyer there is a foreign exchange call seller. The foreign exchange options buyer pays a premium to the foreign exchange options seller in every option transaction.

Plain Vanilla Forex Options - Plain vanilla options generally refer to standard put and call option contracts traded through an exchange (however, in the case of forex option trading, plain vanilla options would refer to the standard, generic forex option contracts that are traded through an over-the-counter (OTC) forex options dealer or clearinghouse). In simplest terms, vanilla forex options would be defined as the buying or selling of a standard forex call option contract or a forex put option contract.

Exotic Forex Options - To understand what makes an exotic forex option "exotic," you must first understand what makes a forex option "non-vanilla." Plain vanilla forex options have a definitive expiration structure, payout structure and payout amount. Exotic forex option contracts may have a change in one or all of the above features of a vanilla forex option. It is important to note that exotic options, since they are often tailored to a specific's investor's needs by an exotic forex options broker, are generally not very liquid, if at all.

Intrinsic & Extrinsic Value - The price of an FX option is calculated into two separate parts, the intrinsic value and the extrinsic (time) value.

The intrinsic value of an FX option is defined as the difference between the strike price and the underlying FX spot contract rate (American Style Options) or the FX forward rate (European Style Options). The intrinsic value represents the actual value of the FX option if exercised. Please note that the intrinsic value must be zero (0) or above - if an FX option has no intrinsic value, then the FX option is simply referred to as having no (or zero) intrinsic value (the intrinsic value is never represented as a negative number). An FX option with no intrinsic value is considered "out-of-the-money," an FX option having intrinsic value is considered "in-the-money," and an FX option with a strike price at, or very close to, the underlying FX spot rate is considered "at-the-money."

The extrinsic value of an FX option is commonly referred to as the "time" value and is defined as the value of an FX option beyond the intrinsic value. A number of factors contribute to the calculation of the extrinsic value including, but not limited to, the volatility of the two spot currencies involved, the time left until expiration, the riskless interest rate of both currencies, the spot price of both currencies and the strike price of the FX option. It is important to note that the extrinsic value of FX options erodes as its expiration nears. An FX option with 60 days left to expiration will be worth more than the same FX option that has only 30 days left to expiration. Because there is more time for the underlying FX spot price to possibly move in a favorable direction, FX options sellers demand (and FX options buyers are willing to pay) a larger premium for the extra amount of time.

Volatility - Volatility is considered the most important factor when pricing forex options and it measures movements in the price of the underlying. High volatility increases the probability that the forex option could expire in-the-money and increases the risk to the forex option seller who, in turn, can demand a larger premium. An increase in volatility causes an increase in the price of both call and put options.

Delta - The delta of a forex option is defined as the change in price of a forex option relative to a change in the underlying forex spot rate. A change in a forex option's delta can be influenced by a change in the underlying forex spot rate, a change in volatility, a change in the riskless interest rate of the underlying spot currencies or simply by the passage of time (nearing of the expiration date).

The delta must always be calculated in a range of zero to one (0-1.0). Generally, the delta of a deep out-of-the-money forex option will be closer to zero, the delta of an at-the-money forex option will be near .5 (the probability of exercise is near 50%) and the delta of deep in-the-money forex options will be closer to 1.0. In simplest terms, the closer a forex option's strike price is relative to the underlying spot forex rate, the higher the delta because it is more sensitive to a change in the underlying rate.

Forex Options Tips - Tips to Increase Profits and Decrease Risk!

If you have never considered sing Forex Options then you should. They can simply overcome the major problem most Forex traders face - getting stopped out by short term volatility...

A Forex Option gives you unlimited profit potential and your risk is simply the price you paid for the option. This means, prices can go anywhere in the short term but so long as the option trades above the price you bought it at, in rising market or below in a falling market you make money.

How many times have you been stopped out by short term volatility, only see the price go right back the way you thought they would, make thousands of dollars and your not in the trade?

It happens to most traders!

Picking the direction of the long term trend is easy; balancing the risk reward in the short term is the hard part. You want to be in the trend - but you don't want to have to worry about short term risk. Staying power is the key advantage Forex options give you.

Options are a great tool to limit short term risk - but you need to use them correctly and here are two simple tips.

1. Always Buy at or in the Money Options.

Never buy way out of the money options, as these are long shot bets.

Sure the profit potential is bigger, if the strike price is hit but the key word here is "if"; out of the money options, are the equivalent of outsider bets and the outsider doesn't normally win!

2. Get Time on your Side

The closer the option is to expiry, the more time decay plays a role in option value. Never buy options with less than 3 months to expiry, so you have plenty of time on your side.

Options the Ultimate Risk Control Tool!

Forex options are a powerful tool any Forex trader should look at to deal with volatility and gain staying power. The problem most of the time is not deciding where a currency will go long term but where to place your stop and options take care of this problem, by giving you staying power.

If you don't know much about options, then make them part of your essential Forex education and add a valuable tool, to your armoury for bigger Forex profits.

Short Term Options Trading

There are many traders who still consider options and warrants to be long term trading markets, but options can even be traded short term. It is important to understand that trading options short terms is not dramatically different from trading any other market but there are a couple of options specifics that need to be taken into account. In short term trading, the aptitude to steer the short term market is a key component for continued success. As an equity trader one has to learn to trade with the short trend of the markets to reduce market risk.

An option trading is a strategy that does not depend on the market direction; in fact it does well in volatile markets. With options trading there are two methods through which you can enter a long trade and short terms trade. While a long fundamental trade can be entered either by buying a call or by selling a put, a short underlying trade can be entered either by buying a put or by selling a call.

In short term options trading calculating risk reward is yet another important point that trader need to well aware of. Calculating the risk reward can be defined as the amount trader would risk if he or she were wrong and the amount trader would make if he or she were right. If we don't figure out this number, the chances are more where we may find the stock that may go in favor but the option goes against.

If we compare long term and short term options trading, then both have their own advantages. However, buying short term options can be very beneficial as it gives more control. It very general that no one can exactly make prediction very clearly when it comes to stock trading. It's really hard to predict what will happen to a stock 3 months down the road. Though sometimes it is easier to predict which way the stock will be heading in just a few weeks as opposed to a few months. Thus, selling short term options allow capture more premiums over a longer time frame.

Apart from this, it even works well and provides an excellent way for novice traders to trade. This is because as the price movement is so fast and dynamic that when things happen, beginners may not know what to do and be able to do it quickly. Moreover, it is an enormously lively options trading method where options are bought and sold very quickly in order to gain profit from the least intraday price swing or change in volatility.

Today certainly short term option trading has gained its world-wide popularity. It has become extremely money-making method in the hands of options trading veterans and new comers in current extremely volatile market conditions.

Understanding the fundamentals of Commodity Futures Trading

If we carefully look at the present business scenario then we could easily see that in recent time futures trading are gaining its world-wide popularity. In fact it is the most common trading found on many markets these days. As per the latest definitions- it is more like a trading of contracts called futures contracts, which facilitates the owner with power to trade the basic commodity at somewhere in the future for a fixed rate. Moreover, like stocks and options trading, futures trades are done in precise centralized futures commodity trading markets. However, depending upon the type of futures contracts, it can be broadly classified as commodity futures contracts and financial futures contracts.

In commodity futures contracts, trading of contracts end with a physical delivery. They may include agricultural commodity futures like sugar, oats, wheat, rice etc OR energy commodity futures such as crude oil, natural gas, etc; metals & stones like gold, silver, diamond etc. This means that if a trader is holding a futures contract and the time come when it expires, the appropriate payment will be made by the buyer, and the basic commodity (agricultural or energy) will be delivered by the seller. Whereas in financial futures contracts, trading of contracts end with a cash settlement and it include futures for treasury notes, bonds, mutual funds etc.

The futures contract trading can be executed electronically on electronic trading platforms linked to the major commodity exchanges or by the traditional open outcry method on the floor of the exchange. However, the basic form of futures contract is that it must state a location and date for physical delivery of the particular commodity. There are times when delivery arrangements are also specified by the exchange. This is particularly important for commodities that require high transportation costs, which in turn may affect the delivery place.

All those who are involved in commodity future trading must understand that for most commodity futures contracts, daily price movement limits are specified by the exchange. A limit movement is nothing but a move of price that can shift in either direction equal to the daily price limit. If the price moves down by an amount equal to the daily price limit, the contract is said to be limit down. And if the price moves up by the limit then it is said to be limit up. Price limits and positions limits generally aim to avoid large price movements deriving from excessive speculation. However, at times they act as an artificial barrier to trading when the price of the underlying commodity increases or decreases swiftly.

Overall, trading with commodity futures is definitely a good way to make handsome money but there are some essential factors that one has to take care. It is highly volatile in nature and more likely to remain unpredictable mainly because of several factors like geopolitical concerns, contracted demand-supply fundamentals, growth and inflation pressures that put pressure on the global commodity market. It is a most interesting market environment but also a dangerous one as many wars have been fought and many nations & leading companies compete for scarce natural resources and food supplies.

Forex Trading Education - The London Open Checklist

A thorough Forex trading education must include an understanding of the effect market timings can have on trading and liquidity.

One of the most active periods of the day is from the time the London market opens. Often around that time good trading opportunities will appear.

As part of your Forex trading education, learn to analyze market conditions around London open and begin to recognize good setups.

The following questionnaire and checklist will help.

London Open Preparation

About 15 to 30 minutes before London open check the answers to these questions:

- Are the MACD indicators on the 4 hour and 1 hour charts in agreement? If they are not going in the same direction be very careful!

- Is there MACD divergence on the 4 hour, 1 hour, or 15 minute chart? Look for other clues to confirm that price may go in the direction of MACD divergence.

- On the 4 hour chart what is the overall trend?

- Do a Fibonacci calculation on the last swing high and low and see if price is pulling back to an optimum retracement level or whether it is reaching a key extension level.

- Note price in relation to the 200 EMA (Exponential Moving Average) on the 4 hour, 1 hour and 15 minute charts. Is price bucking the trend? In other words, is price above the 200 EMA on the 4 hour and 1 hour chart but below it on the 15 minute? Then be prepared for price to go long at some stage. (Draw the opposite conclusion if price is below the 200 EMA on the 4 hour and 1 hour chart but above it on the 15 minute chart.)

- Are any Economic Reports imminent?

- As the candle closes on the 15 minute chart at London open, do you see any distinctive candle patterns such as tweezers, or doji's or hammers indicating price exhaustion?

- If I entered a trade right now in a particular direction, what would be the risk and where would I place my stop?

Within a few minutes of London open, if you see a number of factors converging from the analysis above, make a decision one way or the other:

- trade

- wait for clearer signals or a better entry point

Carrying out an analysis in this way each day at London open will do much to increase your Forex trading education.

It will make you aware of what is happening on the charts and in the marketplace and help you to arrive at conclusions.

There is no magic formula involved with Forex trading education. Put simply, successful Forex trading is the result of years of hard work, study, practice, and experience often gained through painful trading scenarios.

Eventually the newer trader learns mental discipline, and how to control the emotions - probably the biggest part of a Forex trading education.

Practice a procedure like the one above day after day and begin to see some progress as you get nearer the time you make profits consistently from currency trading.